The Math Says The Lakers can not win

A basketball game has 48 minutes spread into 4 quarters. Each quarter has 12 minutes which equates to 720 seconds. By rule each team can only possess the ball for 24 seconds before the ball must hit the rim or the ball is turned over to the other team and their 24 second possession begins. This establishes a minimum number of times each team must touch and possess the basketball per quarter. That number is 15(720sec/24sec/2teams=15 possessions). The Celtics would like to play at that pace and the Lakers would like the pace at least twice as fast. The reality is that the pace will fall somewhere in between. Offensive rebounds increases each teams number of possessions. Turnover do the same thing. Shooting fouls add an untimed possesion for the shooting team .
The ideal situation for the Lakers is to possess the ball 120 times and shoot 45% . That would give them 108 points(120x.45=54x2=108). I think we would all agree if the Lakers score 108 points the will beat the Celtics. Their problem is the can not force the Celtics to play at that pace.
The Celtics would like to keep the Lakers possessions down to about 90 for the game. That would hold their score down to about 81 points(90x.45=40.5x2=81). I think we would all agree the Lakers can not beat the Celtics if they only score 81 points.
The issue then becomes who can enforce their will on their opponent. It is pretty simple. Defensive will is easier to impose than offensive will. The Celtics are the best defensive team in basketball. The Lakers need to run the offense in 12 to 14 seconds. They can do this when playing against the teams in the west. They can not against this Celtic team. These Celtics force their opponents to use 20 to 22 seconds on each possession and that results in bad shoots as the 24 second clock is about to expire. It is almost impossible to maintain a 45% shooting percentage when you are launching desperation shoots as that clock runs out. These Celtics are a superior rebounding team than these(or just about any NBA team) Lakers ever hoped to be. The fewer rebounds the fewer possessions the lower the score the lower the chances the Lakers have of winning.
Look at Thursday's box score it is text book. Celtics shot 32/76 42.1% Lakers 32/77 41.6%. Advantage Celtics. Three point shooting Celtics 6/19 31.6% Lakers 3/14 21.4% Advantage Celtics. Foul shooting Celtics 28/35 80%. Lakers 21/28 75%. Again advantge Celtics. Celtics rebounding 46 total 10 offensive Lakers 33 total 7 offensive. Once again advantage Celtics. When you win all the important rebounding stat the rest will normally fall in line. That is exactly what happened on Thursday.
The Lakers will have to impose their offensive will on the Celtics 4 times. Can they do that? I do not think so. The Celtics need to impose their defensive will 3 times. Can they do that? I think so. The numbers say that they will.