Is There a Draft In Here?

Something keeps me up at night. An early morning draft. So, with a live draft online tomorrow, I find myself doing the endless loop of a walk through. Some people mock fantasy football. They get all huffy and wonder why I get so involved. Usually I tell them, "Well, it's more fun than talking to you, and I take that seriously."

The truth is, I don't care if it's a game of pick-up-sticks against a spallpox infected 4 year old cripple girl that I've been bribed a hundred million dollars to lose to, I play to win.

Playing to win means:

1. Being the most prepared.
2. Waiting for the right time to take a calculated risk.
3. Never letting up on the taser.

You tase, then you tase again, then you tase.

So, I've got three cheat sheets. One generic (to predict opponents tendencies and keep myself in check). One custom with all non-Murk players removed. And one for emergencies, oddball picks, and bombing out all the talent from the late rounds, affectionately called 'The Bitch List'.

Shock and Awe. Then tase.

So, I'll give you three curveballs. If you see these picks during your draft, the dude making them is pulling something funny.

First: No quarterbacks in the first five rounds and then he busts out with Matt Ryan and Jon Kitna. This is a classic, pioneered by 'the Don' in the early nineties. The point, pick risk-reward QBs late and wait for someone on waivers to emerge, or one of your goofy guys to come up reasonably big. Papa Murk and I did this one year with Testaverde and when a Guy Named Trent Green went down for the Rams, we picked up a then studly Kurt Warner. He then went on to win an MVP and a Superbowl.

Second: Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee. Nobody checks the second back on the Titan's depth chart unless a). they're from Tennessee, b). they're an insufferable draftnic. If you see a guy pick him up, he's going to bust your balls wide open late in the draft. He'll even straight shoot you a nice 10th round pick, because he can, because he's not worried about your team and because he wants to make sure you don't accidently fuck up his Tim Hightower bomb on his next pick.

Third: If you see a fellow drafter go one, two, three on running backs, don't panic. This is an old old trick. Kill the late round RB bargains and get three top 20 running backs. Warning: It will work for him, because he planned his draft that way. It will not work for you, who has Randy Moss and Tony Romo in your top ten.

So, whether your draft is today, tomorrow, or some other stupid day, good luck to you. Get some sleep if you can.

Fantasy Football Top Ten

Your top ten sets the tone for your draft. The great thing about a top ten is you can share it with the idiots in your league. Everyone had a variation of the same seven and three. Seven consensus players that everyone wants, and up to three opinion picks. A perfect example from the past is Curtis Martin. He was a consensus top ten for the first five years of his career, but very much a contraversial opinion top ten pick in years 6 and seven.

Okay, so here is my top ten:

1. Adrian Peterson - The best fantasy player in the NFL. If you don't agree, you've never watched him in a full game. Go to you tube and search for his highlights.

2. Randy Moss - WHAT??? Always nice to have a pocket shocker at number 2. Check the numbers. In a head to head league, he's a wet dream for any owner: a wide receiver that scores like a running back.

3. LT - No, not the coke machine, Lawrence Taylor. At three, you can't even beat him with a pocket shocker. A bad year from LT is a good year for anyone below him.

4. Tom Brady - If he scores half as much as he did last year, he'll only be worth 50% of what he was. Uhuh. I said that.

5. Peyton Manning - If he's healthy. He's in any top ten just for name.

6. Larry Johnson - Actually, I don't believe in him at all, but everyone else does, so he goes here.

7. Joseph Addai - Solid solid solid.

8. Steven Jackson - Long holdouts sometimes hurt running backs, but this is Steven Jackson.

9. Ryan Grant - Oh, come on. Don't be a snob. Sure, you could take a name here, but this guy produces.

10. Vince Young - This pick is poison. Don't listen to me. I do this in honor of the five straight years I took Steve McNair around here. Three years it worked.


Caveats: Draft according to your plan. After number 5, there are no guarantees. Remember, you don't rank players to sleep through the draft. Pick what you see, what you want and what you like. Especially in a free or cheap league, nothing is worse than a team of players you don't like.

Remember, only one team wins, so nine out of ten times, you're paling for fun and pride.

More draft advice next week.

Fantasy Football Sleepers

Although I hate the term 'sleeper', as it implies a Rip Van Winkle sort of player, I love picking up players no one thought of and succeeding with them. By far, the greatest team I've ever drafted (with Papa Murk) had Terry Allen as a Redskin, Marshall Faulk in his rookie year and Natrone Means before he was famous. At least, that's how I remember it.

So, in honor of late round trash talkers everywhere, I bring you the Secret Weapons of Fantasy Football 2008.

Quaterback:

Don't waste your time searching for value early. If you pull the trigger on a QB in the first round, you'd better be damn sure what you're getting. A late flyer on one of these names might do it for you.

Jay Cutler - Not a sleeper per se, but overlooked. 20 tds and 3000 yards baseline, with a bit of upside. Not great for head to head leagues.

Matt Schaub - Papa Murk's pick. Nuff said. Great receivers, great arm. Stay healthy, please Matt.

David Garrard - Oh, he looks bad until the last 3 round of the draft, then you say, "Hey, he's still there?" And he will be.

Running Backs:

Don't draft running backs. Draft ONE running back. By this I mean, stay away from split duty guys. Pick a full time runner early if you can and fill in the gaps with steady yardage guys.

Jamal Lewis - He's not dead yet. Solid 10 point a week guy. Pick him up in the fourth or fifth, depending on your league IQ.

Edgerrin James - WHAT? Just wait. Pick him up late and wait. Not your number 1. Hell, not your number 2, but number 3??? Hell.

Julius Jones - This has a lot of risk, but Seattle always seems to pick up an average guy and make him great. Their Offensive Line is great. Everyone jumps on Denver running backs, but Seattle is the place for me.

Ricky Williams - What am I, high? Yes. High on some of that Jamaican Ricky Bomb. Value late. Maybe some upside.

Wide Receivers:

Picking wide receiver sleepers is like making out with your sister. Sure, it's making out, but it's really NOT something to brag about. But, why let 2000 years of taboo stand in the way.

Jerricho Cotchery - He will be the number six scoring receiver in your league by the end of the season. Bank it.

Calvin Johnson - Ut oh. Bad pick goes right. We call this one the KEARNS. So bad it has to work.

Roddy White - The annual "Someone has to catch the ball there" pick. A deep deep sleeper that may never wake up. BUT, worth a 7th round flier if he's there.

Kickers, Defenses, TE, etc:

They're all sleepers.

More Draft Coverage Next Week.

What Division is the Best?

I was looking at the MLB standings this morning and noticed how the league only has two strong divisions from top to bottom, the AL East and, surprisingly, the NL Central. The AL Central only has two teams, the ChiSox and the Twins, but neither of those teams look particularly strong and the rest of the division sucks, especially the Tigers. The NL East has a good race going on right now, but none of those teams are strong. The Mets and Phillies have a lot of weaknesses, primarily with pitching, the Marlins are so-so, the Braves are all dinged up and it's amazing that they aren't in last place, and the Nationals are a total embarrassment. 38 games under .500? Dude. And don't bother wasting time arguing the merits of the West divisions, you'll just look like a total idiot.
My question is which division is the best. You have a good argument for the AL East because 4 of the 5 teams are over .500 and the Orioles, the lone sub-.500 team, is only 5 games under. However, there isn't much of a race for the division outside of the DRays and the BoSox. The Yankees have no chance, nor do the Blue Jays.
The NL Central, though, is also starting to look like a two-team race. The Brewers are 6 behind the Cubs and the Cards are 8.5 back. Hell, that doesn't even really look like a race. But given that the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers still have a lot of games to play against each other, it's still anyone's division. Also, there is a real battle for the Wild Card between the Brewers and Cards (and the Cubs if anything goes wrong), which makes it distinct from the AL East. The Yanks are pretty much done and cannot compete top-to-bottom with the BoSox or DRays for the division or the Wild Card. This gives the NL Central an edge over the NL East as far as interest. Also, the Astros are the fourth team over .500 in the division. For the only six-team division in the league to have 4 teams over .500 says something about its strength. The Pirates and Reds, though, make the division's bottom real weak as they are 12 and 16 games under .500 respectively.
I have concluded that, because of the records of the Pirates and Reds at the bottom of the NL Central, the AL East is better top-to-bottom, but that the NL Central is the more interesting division. The division race is still strong in the Central and will probably come down to the last week of the season, as will the Wild Card.