Tony Dungy and the Playoffs

There has been a lot of debate lately regarding whether Tony Dungy is a bust in the playoffs. That's a difficult debate as the Colts won the Super Bowl a few years back. Also, Dungy got to the AFC Championship twice with the Colts. Sounds impressive, no?
Well, like with most things, the truth is complicated. To understand Dungy's success as a head coach, you have to back to his days in Tampa Bay. When Dungy came to Tampa, the organization was in shambles. He slowly put together an impressive defense and a capable offense. In four short seasons, Dungy had Tampa Bay one questionable reversal away from the Super Bowl. Had it not been for that dubious call, Tampa would have upset the heavily-favored Rams and made it to the Super Bowl against the Titans. After that, though, his team went from 11-5 to 10-6 and then to 9-7, losing twice in the Wild-Card round to the Eagles. Dungy's overall record in the postseason with Tampa Bay was an underwhelming 2-4.
After that, he went to the Colts. The Colts were on the rise, but struggled on defense and, despite having an excellent offense, were unable to put it all together and win consistently. Enter Tony Dungy. The Colts go 10-6 and get back to the playoffs, losing to a far superior Jets team in the Wild-Card round. After that, the Colts make it to the AFC Championship game and lose to a far superior Patriots team. Another 12-4 season ended in a loss to the Pats in the divisional round. After three season in Indianapolis, Dungy had won 3 and lost 3 in the postseason. Not too shabby, not at all.
After his second straight loss to the Pats, Dungy guides the Colts to a 14-2 regular season. But a very impressive season ends in an embarrassing last-second loss to a Steelers team who, while going on to win the Super Bowl, had been inconsistent throughout most of the season and got hot late. Dungy's postseason record with the Colts was 3-4 at that point. Again, nothing to shake a stick at.
And the next season, Dungy got the crowning achievement -- a Super Bowl win. The Colts went 4-0 in the playoffs and beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship game en route to defeating the Bears and taking the Super Bowl. Dungy's record with the Colts improved to 7-4 in the playoffs, and with the defense finally playing to a level necessary to sustain the Colts success, looked poised to create a dynasty. And with Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Bob Sanders and Dwight Frenney on defense, one more Super Bowl over the next few years wouldn't be out of the question, and a return to the AFC Championship would be a given.
But that hasn't happened. Since winning the Super Bowl, the Colts have done what they always do under Dungy in the regular season, win a lot more than they lose. The Colts were 13-3 in 2007 and 12-4, thanks to NINE straight wins, this season. But they also suffered two bitter losses to the Chargers in the playoffs; for those of you paying attention, that's an 0-2 record in the postseason. And, in all fairness to the Chargers, the Colts should have won each of those games. The Chargers, coached by Norv Turner the last two years, have been extremely inconsistent in regular season and made the playoffs this year thanks in large part to an historic collapse by the Broncos. The Colts have not won a postseason game since winning the Super Bowl despite putting up an ungodly 25-7 regular season record over that two-year span.
To put up that many wins in two years and fail to make a conference championship, or at least win ONE postseason game, is just unacceptable. Colts fans should be upset about that. While Dungy is a phenomenal coach, he cannot sustain excellence at the championship level. He took Tampa Bay to a high point and the organization fell flat afterwards. The same has happened with the Colts. The Colts won the Super Bowl that Tampa Bay never did. It was an amazing moment that Dungy and the Colts had been waiting a long time for.
But it is unlikely that Dungy will be able to return to that level. His postseason career involves SIX one-and-dones. SIX. If you take out the 2006 season, Dungy's postseason record is a miserable 5-10. That is not a sign of sustained excellence; it is a sign of underachieving. If the Colts want another Super Bowl, Dungy is not the man to bring it to them. Dungy is a very good coach, but he is certainly not great. He is not a Bellichick, not a Parcells, not a Cowher, nor a Holmgren.
That being said, if Dungy does come back for another year and wins a Super Bowl, I will gladly eat crow.