Sunday, September 14, 2008

The World Is Ending

Duke Football is 2-1! WOOT WOOT!
Actually, the team could easily be 3-0 were it not for an unfortunate holding penalty against Northwestern that wiped out a game-winning touchdown. This team is playing a lot like they did early last season. Duke was putting up points and hanging in games, but fading late. They couldn't close out a game and it cost Ted Roof, unfairly, his job. I think a lot of that had to do with youth. While Duke is still young, they are much older at key positions this year, especially at QB. Thad Lewis is in his third year as a starter and is a true junior.
Duke has to be confident now, very confident. Virginia will be tough two weeks from now, Duke has a bye-week next, but Duke almost beat them last year and they have to believe they can do it now. They are putting up a lot of points, something Virginia has been unable to do. I mean, Virginia only put up 16 against Richmond! If Duke gets confident, the sky's the limit (except when we play teams like Va Tech, Clemson, and Wake, those teams are just more physical than we are). It'll be interesting to see if we can hang with Miami, Vandy, and Ga Tech. Those teams, with the exception of Vandy, are not unquestionably better than Duke this year and are rebuilding. Duke could easily shock one or two of those teams; those teams are not so much better that you can say that Duke cannot compete.
I'm not saying Duke will get into a bowl game or will have seven wins or anything like that. I'm just saying that when a team gets some early wins, gets confident, and starts to believe in itself, there is no telling what can happen. Even better, the core of this team will be back next year and Cutcliffe should be able to do some excellent recruiting if we get close to 6 wins (he's already doing a great job in that respect).
I'm excited about what's going on, but I'm keeping calm, too.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Here We Go Patriots!

Take Heart Pats Fans
Yes, I joke. Yes, Tom Brady gives us a much better chance to win it all, and no, Matt Cassel is not better, nor the second coming of Brady. But you see, that is how I deal with loss like this, humor.

But think about it for a moment. This is still a very good team. We still have a best coach in football, and now he has to prove it. Think back to 2001. Bledsoe gets killed, and this fresh face Tom Brady comes in, and what happens? Yeah we win our first Super Bowl, but what really happened? Think back to that team. This was not the bully on the field. This was not the dominating offense. This was not Brady to Moss. Who were some of the "stars" on offense? Troy Brown, Terry Glenn, Jermaine Wiggins, Damien Woody, Joe Andruzzi, JR Redmond, Antowain Smith, David Patten. How about defense? You remember Terrel Buckley? Otis Smith? Tebucky Jones? How did that Patriots team go 11 - 5? How did that team win a Super Bowl?

Tom Brady was not Tom Brady back then. He was a game manager, and Pats won by coaching, changing game plans to suit opponents. Last year team required little coaching, not like the 2001 team. In 2001 they morphed in each game, and played whatever they needed to play to win, they have to do that now. Now this team is behind the 8 ball, but don't they always like that? This is a better team even without Tom than was in 2001. Let's enjoy the journey.

While of course I would prefer Tom Terrific, I am actually excited for this season, bring it on! This is gonna be fun!

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Malach's 08 - 09 NFL Preview

It is back once again, I know you missed it.
Malach's 08' - 09' NFL preview is brought to you today by ROYTERS New Service your place for the news you need, and Branwe, the new fiction series from Christopher Morris. It is also brought to you today by Meet The Heroes.

Before we begin, I must invoke the name of Hastur the Unspeakable; Hastur will assist Malach in his domination of his Fantasy Football League, because no one knows Fantasy Football like the King in Yellow.

Right to it now, it will be a very interesting year, let's break it down by Divisions:

AFC EAST
The AFC East should once again be dominated by the New England Patriots. While there is some improvement in the rest of the division, only the Jets with their addition of an actually quarterback will be the only other team to finish in the playoff hunt. Miami is still a major work in progress, and when a pot smoking guy whose taken a couple years off is you main offensive weapon, you know you got problems. The Bills might surprise a few teams, but they are still no more than a .500 team. Now the Jets, even with a old Brett Favre they have a major improvement at quarterback from Spaghetti arm Chad Pennington, that alone might allow them to win around 10 games, but Favre has never played smashmouth style AFC Football, and he will probably toss a number of interceptions. As for the Patriots, they also have some issues. The loss of Asante Samuel will hurt, but the pickup of Deltha O'Neil will give them a playmaker they are sorely lacking in the secondary. The part that concerns me most is their O-Line, which has some major injuries to starters. Returning are Sammy Morris and the addition of Lamont Jordan should help with that though. The Patriots also have an every easy schedule. The final standings?
NE: 12 - 4
NYJ: 10 - 6
BUFF: 8 - 8
MIA: 6 - 10

AFC NORTH
Very interesting division with a number of teams that could challenge or fall flat. Pittsburgh is the cream of the crop in the division, not a ton of changes there, and Rothlisberger is now a season removed from that Hell Ride he had; and has become one of the best QB's in the league behind Brady and Manning. Hines Ward, though older is still a very good wide receiver, and Pitt has not lost really anything that important on a pretty impressive offence last year. Their defense as always will be tough and very physical. Cleveland is very interesting. I am not convinced Derek Andsersen is a long term answer for the Browns at QB, and I wonder how long before Brady Quinn begins to take the reins of this team. Look for a high flying attack like last year, and a slight stiffer defense. The Bengals, the NFL's Prison Team: again no defense, they will be in shoot outs the entire season, and until they get rid of Marvin Lewis, the won't go much farther than the first round of the playoffs. The Ravens? Their defense will keep them in most games, but with a new young QB, and age really starting to show, this could be a lost season for them.
PITT: 11 - 5
CLE: 10 - 6
CIN: 8 - 8
BAL: 7 - 9

AFC SOUTH
After the Colts, there is a real drop off in talent in this division. Indy might end up the best team in the AFC this year. Like Brady, Manning is coming off a strange injury, and they might start with a few hiccups. the loss of Jeff Saturday could be big at first, but the Colts should survive and take this division by a few games. Jacksonville is a bit of a puzzle. They have major O-Line issues, and with the way their offense runs, that could be very dangerous. They also couple of key losses on defense, but should still have the physical stingy defense of past seasons. It will also be interesting if they use shooting of Richard Collier as a rallying point. After that we have Houston and Tennessee. The Titans should take another step forward, and this is the time for Vince Young to make another leap. They are still the team no one likes to play, but they have to translate that into wins. Houston on the other hand, well it's Houston.
IND: 13 - 3
JAC: 10 - 6
TEN: 9 - 7
HOU: 3 - 13

AFC WEST
San Diego is the darling of the media right now, and addition last year of Chambers actual gave them a viable Wide Receiver, but I am not convinced. Yes, they will probably take the division a particularly weak division, but Phillip Rivers is the guy that would concern me, I am still not convinced. Addition Shawn Merriman is and idiot for trying to play on the injuries he has. As for the rest of the division, Denver is the only other team, and they only have a very slight chance to make the playoffs. KC might be the worst team in football, and the Raiders, the Raiders have a good defense, and that is it.
SD: 11 - 5
DEN: 9 - 7
OAK: 7 - 9
KC: 2 - 14

NFC EAST
This is gonna be fun to watch, you have 4 teams, all who are pretty good, all who could contend. Dallas is still the team to beat, even with the Giants Superbowl win. They have the most talent, and I hate to say this, Romo could turn into a elite level QB this year. Overall very talented team, with no real weaknesses beyond the head coach. Malach does predict that Wade Phillips won't be back next year, and depending on preformance might get fired halfway through. Dallas has a huge advantage playing in the weak NFC but they are hurt by playing in the toughest division in football. The Giants. It will be interesting to see if they can come off their Super Bowl win with out a let down. Eli Manning is still a questionmark, he needs to improve his interceptions for the Giants to come close sniffing the division title. Defense again should be very tough up front, and they should at least on paper challenge Dallas for the division. Philly is should be ready to resurface and win a number of games this year. McNabb finally seems to be healthy and Brian Westbrook has turned into a elite runnning back. There is still a lot of question of who the hell McNabb will be throwing too though. Unlike much of the rest of the NFL, Philly has a very good secondary, and a more questionable D-line, LB package. And finally we get the Redskins. Someone has to come in last in the division and Washington is the most likely, though they steadily improved last year. I like Jason Campbell, but he needs to turn the corner this year
DAL: 11 - 5
NYG: 11 - 5
PHI: 10 - 6
WAS: 9 - 7

NFC NORTH
Wow, what a mediocre division . . . there is no impressive team, nor really bad team. Mediocrity. Yuck, I don't even have anything smart to say about it. Well maybe I do, the division winner probably won't deserve to make the playoffs.
DET: 9 - 7
MIN: 9 - 7
CHI: 8 - 8
GB: 7 - 9

NFC SOUTH
The Saints are easily the best team in this division and since Gustav did not blow away the Superdome they have a home field. The Saint's issue is defense, they will get into a lot of shootouts, most of them they will win. Beyond that Tampa Bay might put up a little stink, Carolina still doesn't have a QB, and the Falcons? I kind of fell bad for Matt Ryan, he gonna take a beating this year (yes, he will be the start by mid season).
NO: 11 - 5
TB: 9 - 7
CAR: 7 - 9
ATL: 3 - 13

NFC WEST
Like the South, Seattle is best team here, and should have no issue taking the division, beyond the Seahawks, you have a mediocre and old Rams team; a Cardinals team unwilling to turn the team over to Matt Leinart, but with some real talent; and 49ers team, the should be up and coming but still a few players away from making real noise.
SEA: 11 - 5
STL: 9 - 7
ARI: 8 - 8
SF: 6 - 10

As for a Superbowl winner, I gotta go with a pissed off Pats. Sorry rest of the world.

I am Malach, and I am usually right one on this preview.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Is There a Draft In Here?

Something keeps me up at night. An early morning draft. So, with a live draft online tomorrow, I find myself doing the endless loop of a walk through. Some people mock fantasy football. They get all huffy and wonder why I get so involved. Usually I tell them, "Well, it's more fun than talking to you, and I take that seriously."

The truth is, I don't care if it's a game of pick-up-sticks against a spallpox infected 4 year old cripple girl that I've been bribed a hundred million dollars to lose to, I play to win.

Playing to win means:

1. Being the most prepared.
2. Waiting for the right time to take a calculated risk.
3. Never letting up on the taser.

You tase, then you tase again, then you tase.

So, I've got three cheat sheets. One generic (to predict opponents tendencies and keep myself in check). One custom with all non-Murk players removed. And one for emergencies, oddball picks, and bombing out all the talent from the late rounds, affectionately called 'The Bitch List'.

Shock and Awe. Then tase.

So, I'll give you three curveballs. If you see these picks during your draft, the dude making them is pulling something funny.

First: No quarterbacks in the first five rounds and then he busts out with Matt Ryan and Jon Kitna. This is a classic, pioneered by 'the Don' in the early nineties. The point, pick risk-reward QBs late and wait for someone on waivers to emerge, or one of your goofy guys to come up reasonably big. Papa Murk and I did this one year with Testaverde and when a Guy Named Trent Green went down for the Rams, we picked up a then studly Kurt Warner. He then went on to win an MVP and a Superbowl.

Second: Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee. Nobody checks the second back on the Titan's depth chart unless a). they're from Tennessee, b). they're an insufferable draftnic. If you see a guy pick him up, he's going to bust your balls wide open late in the draft. He'll even straight shoot you a nice 10th round pick, because he can, because he's not worried about your team and because he wants to make sure you don't accidently fuck up his Tim Hightower bomb on his next pick.

Third: If you see a fellow drafter go one, two, three on running backs, don't panic. This is an old old trick. Kill the late round RB bargains and get three top 20 running backs. Warning: It will work for him, because he planned his draft that way. It will not work for you, who has Randy Moss and Tony Romo in your top ten.

So, whether your draft is today, tomorrow, or some other stupid day, good luck to you. Get some sleep if you can.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Fantasy Football Top Ten

Your top ten sets the tone for your draft. The great thing about a top ten is you can share it with the idiots in your league. Everyone had a variation of the same seven and three. Seven consensus players that everyone wants, and up to three opinion picks. A perfect example from the past is Curtis Martin. He was a consensus top ten for the first five years of his career, but very much a contraversial opinion top ten pick in years 6 and seven.

Okay, so here is my top ten:

1. Adrian Peterson - The best fantasy player in the NFL. If you don't agree, you've never watched him in a full game. Go to you tube and search for his highlights.

2. Randy Moss - WHAT??? Always nice to have a pocket shocker at number 2. Check the numbers. In a head to head league, he's a wet dream for any owner: a wide receiver that scores like a running back.

3. LT - No, not the coke machine, Lawrence Taylor. At three, you can't even beat him with a pocket shocker. A bad year from LT is a good year for anyone below him.

4. Tom Brady - If he scores half as much as he did last year, he'll only be worth 50% of what he was. Uhuh. I said that.

5. Peyton Manning - If he's healthy. He's in any top ten just for name.

6. Larry Johnson - Actually, I don't believe in him at all, but everyone else does, so he goes here.

7. Joseph Addai - Solid solid solid.

8. Steven Jackson - Long holdouts sometimes hurt running backs, but this is Steven Jackson.

9. Ryan Grant - Oh, come on. Don't be a snob. Sure, you could take a name here, but this guy produces.

10. Vince Young - This pick is poison. Don't listen to me. I do this in honor of the five straight years I took Steve McNair around here. Three years it worked.


Caveats: Draft according to your plan. After number 5, there are no guarantees. Remember, you don't rank players to sleep through the draft. Pick what you see, what you want and what you like. Especially in a free or cheap league, nothing is worse than a team of players you don't like.

Remember, only one team wins, so nine out of ten times, you're paling for fun and pride.

More draft advice next week.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Fantasy Football Sleepers

Although I hate the term 'sleeper', as it implies a Rip Van Winkle sort of player, I love picking up players no one thought of and succeeding with them. By far, the greatest team I've ever drafted (with Papa Murk) had Terry Allen as a Redskin, Marshall Faulk in his rookie year and Natrone Means before he was famous. At least, that's how I remember it.

So, in honor of late round trash talkers everywhere, I bring you the Secret Weapons of Fantasy Football 2008.

Quaterback:

Don't waste your time searching for value early. If you pull the trigger on a QB in the first round, you'd better be damn sure what you're getting. A late flyer on one of these names might do it for you.

Jay Cutler - Not a sleeper per se, but overlooked. 20 tds and 3000 yards baseline, with a bit of upside. Not great for head to head leagues.

Matt Schaub - Papa Murk's pick. Nuff said. Great receivers, great arm. Stay healthy, please Matt.

David Garrard - Oh, he looks bad until the last 3 round of the draft, then you say, "Hey, he's still there?" And he will be.

Running Backs:

Don't draft running backs. Draft ONE running back. By this I mean, stay away from split duty guys. Pick a full time runner early if you can and fill in the gaps with steady yardage guys.

Jamal Lewis - He's not dead yet. Solid 10 point a week guy. Pick him up in the fourth or fifth, depending on your league IQ.

Edgerrin James - WHAT? Just wait. Pick him up late and wait. Not your number 1. Hell, not your number 2, but number 3??? Hell.

Julius Jones - This has a lot of risk, but Seattle always seems to pick up an average guy and make him great. Their Offensive Line is great. Everyone jumps on Denver running backs, but Seattle is the place for me.

Ricky Williams - What am I, high? Yes. High on some of that Jamaican Ricky Bomb. Value late. Maybe some upside.

Wide Receivers:

Picking wide receiver sleepers is like making out with your sister. Sure, it's making out, but it's really NOT something to brag about. But, why let 2000 years of taboo stand in the way.

Jerricho Cotchery - He will be the number six scoring receiver in your league by the end of the season. Bank it.

Calvin Johnson - Ut oh. Bad pick goes right. We call this one the KEARNS. So bad it has to work.

Roddy White - The annual "Someone has to catch the ball there" pick. A deep deep sleeper that may never wake up. BUT, worth a 7th round flier if he's there.

Kickers, Defenses, TE, etc:

They're all sleepers.

More Draft Coverage Next Week.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

What Division is the Best?

I was looking at the MLB standings this morning and noticed how the league only has two strong divisions from top to bottom, the AL East and, surprisingly, the NL Central. The AL Central only has two teams, the ChiSox and the Twins, but neither of those teams look particularly strong and the rest of the division sucks, especially the Tigers. The NL East has a good race going on right now, but none of those teams are strong. The Mets and Phillies have a lot of weaknesses, primarily with pitching, the Marlins are so-so, the Braves are all dinged up and it's amazing that they aren't in last place, and the Nationals are a total embarrassment. 38 games under .500? Dude. And don't bother wasting time arguing the merits of the West divisions, you'll just look like a total idiot.
My question is which division is the best. You have a good argument for the AL East because 4 of the 5 teams are over .500 and the Orioles, the lone sub-.500 team, is only 5 games under. However, there isn't much of a race for the division outside of the DRays and the BoSox. The Yankees have no chance, nor do the Blue Jays.
The NL Central, though, is also starting to look like a two-team race. The Brewers are 6 behind the Cubs and the Cards are 8.5 back. Hell, that doesn't even really look like a race. But given that the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers still have a lot of games to play against each other, it's still anyone's division. Also, there is a real battle for the Wild Card between the Brewers and Cards (and the Cubs if anything goes wrong), which makes it distinct from the AL East. The Yanks are pretty much done and cannot compete top-to-bottom with the BoSox or DRays for the division or the Wild Card. This gives the NL Central an edge over the NL East as far as interest. Also, the Astros are the fourth team over .500 in the division. For the only six-team division in the league to have 4 teams over .500 says something about its strength. The Pirates and Reds, though, make the division's bottom real weak as they are 12 and 16 games under .500 respectively.
I have concluded that, because of the records of the Pirates and Reds at the bottom of the NL Central, the AL East is better top-to-bottom, but that the NL Central is the more interesting division. The division race is still strong in the Central and will probably come down to the last week of the season, as will the Wild Card.